Oil prices hold steady as investors monitor Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks

[TOKYO] Oil prices held steady on Monday as investors assessed the outlook for ceasefire talks aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war, which could lead to an increase in Russian oil to global markets.

Brent crude futures were down 8 cents, or 0.1 per cent, at US$72.08 a barrel by 0046 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5 cents, or 0.1 per cent, to US$68.23.

Both benchmarks settled higher on Friday and recorded a second consecutive weekly gain as fresh US sanctions on Iran and the latest output plan from the Opec+ producer group raised expectations of tighter supply.

A US delegation will seek progress toward a Black Sea ceasefire and a broader cessation of violence in the war in Ukraine when it meets for talks with Russian officials on Monday, after discussions with diplomats from Ukraine on Sunday.

“Expectations of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and a potential easing of US sanctions on Russian oil pressured prices lower,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.

“But investors are holding back on large positions as they evaluate future Opec+ production trends beyond April,” he added.

Opec+ – the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia – on Thursday issued a new schedule for seven member nations to make further oil output cuts to compensate for pumping above agreed levels, which will more than overtake the monthly production hikes the group plans to introduce next month.

Still, Kazakhstan’s oil output has reached a record high this month on the back of oilfield expansion, further exceeding Opec+ production quotas, two industry sources said and Reuters calculations showed on Friday.

Opec+ has been cutting output by 5.85 million barrels per day, equal to about 5.7 per cent of global supply, agreed in a series of steps since 2022 to support the market. It confirmed on March 3 that eight of its members would proceed with a monthly increase of 138,000 bpd from April, citing healthier market fundamentals.

Market participants are also monitoring the impact from new Iran-related US sanctions announced last week.

Iranian oil shipments to China are set to fall in the near-term after new US sanctions on a refiner and tankers, driving up shipping costs, but traders said they expect buyers to find workarounds to keep at least some volume flowing.

Meanwhile, US energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for the first time in three weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in a report on Friday. REUTERS