Asia: Markets fluctuate as traders weigh tariffs, US jobs

[HONG KONG] Asian markets flitted between gains and losses on Monday as investors continued to digest last week’s tariff blitz by Donald Trump and a US jobs report that fanned fears about the world’s top economy.

News on Friday that dozens of countries would be hit with levies ranging from 10 to 41 per cent sent shivers through exchanges amid concern about the impact on global trade.

With the date of implementation pushed back to Thursday, focus will be on talks between Washington and other capitals on paring some of the tolls back.

The pain was compounded later by figures showing the US economy created just 73,000 jobs in July – against 104,000 forecast – while unemployment rose to 4.2 per cent from 4.1 percent. Job gains from June and May were also revised down by nearly 260,000.

The figures stoked concerns that Trump’s tariffs are beginning to bite, with inflation also seen pushing back towards three per cent.

The reading also saw the president fire the commissioner of labour statistics, accusing her of manipulating employment data for political reasons.

Bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its September meeting shot up following the jobs numbers, with some analysts predicting it will go for a 50-basis-point reduction, rather than the regular 25 points.

Yields on US Treasury bonds fell sharply as investors priced in the cuts.

Investors will now be keenly awaiting every utterance from Fed boss Jerome Powell leading up to the next policy meeting, not least because of the pressure Trump has put on him to lower rates.

Observers said news that governor Adriani Kugler will step down from the bank six months early will give the president a chance to increase his influence on decision-making.

“Fed credibility, and the veracity of the statistics on which they base their policy decisions, are both now under the spotlight,” said National Australia Bank’s Ray Attrill.

“Fed officials, such as New York President John Williams speaking after the data, profess to be open minded about the September Fed meeting, but Mr Market has already decided they are cutting – ending Friday 88 per cent priced for a 25-basis-points rate reduction.”

Still, Asian investors tried to get back on the horse after Friday’s selloff, with Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore and Seoul up, while Tokyo, Sydney, Wellington, Taipei, Manila and Jakarta were all down.

The performance was better than New York, where the S&P 500 and Dow each lost more than one per cent and the Nasdaq more than two per cent – with some also questioning whether a recent rally to multiple records has gone too far.

The dollar edged up but held most of its losses against its peers after tanking on the jobs report.

And oil extended Friday’s losses of almost three per cent, which came after Opec and other key producers agreed another output hike, fanning oversupply fears owing to the effects of Trump’s tariffs and signs of a weakening economy. AFP