Broader uptrend intact for Nasdaq-100, with bias tilted towards the upside

[SINGAPORE] The Nasdaq-100 index remains firmly in an uptrend, trading close to key Fibonacci extension levels from its February to April swing.

As of early October, the index is hovering around 24,900, having surpassed the 138.2 per cent Fibonacci extension at roughly 24,350 and edging towards the 150 per cent level near 25,016.

Price action over the past few months has remained within a well-defined rising channel that dates back to May 2025. This structure suggests the index could continue oscillating higher along the channel, keeping the broader trend bullish as long as the channel support remains intact.

Technical indicators reinforce this picture. The Nasdaq-100 has consistently held above its 50-day moving average since May, a classic sign of strength, and momentum scans continue to reflect a “strong buy” bias across daily and weekly time frames. Together, these factors point towards further gains in the near term, with the 25,000 zone emerging as a key milestone.

Immediate resistance is found at the 150 per cent Fibonacci extension level of around 25,016, which coincides with the psychological weight of the 25,000 round number. Should bullish momentum extend further, the next resistance lies at 25,682, the 161.8 per cent extension, which could serve as a stretch target. The upper boundary of the rising channel also acts as dynamic resistance, and price action respecting this slope suggests that the market is still grinding higher rather than breaking out decisively.

On the downside, primary support rests near 24,500 at the lower edge of the uptrend channel. A break below this level would be the first sign of weakening momentum. Secondary support is seen at 24,350, the 138.2 per cent Fibonacci extension, which has recently flipped from resistance into support. Should the channel break, the 50-day moving average at around 23,790 and the 100-day average near 22,913 would become critical levels to watch.

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The 50-day SMA (simple moving average) has provided reliable support throughout the summer, and a sustained break below it would indicate a deeper correction.

The macro backdrop remains an important influence. At its Sep 17 meeting, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00 to 4.25 per cent.

Policymakers noted that growth is moderating and inflation remains “somewhat elevated”, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasising a cautious “meeting-by-meeting” approach.

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Economic data has been mixed: manufacturing activity remains sluggish, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 49.1 in September, while consumer inflation rose 0.3 per cent month-on-month and 2.9 per cent year-on-year in August, still above the central bank’s 2 per cent target. This backdrop suggests that while further rate cuts are possible, they are likely to be gradual and data-dependent.

Overall, the technical setup for the Nasdaq 100-remains bullish. The uptrend channel continues to hold, and Fibonacci projections signal scope for further upside into the mid-25,000s. Pullbacks are likely to find buyers near 24,500 or 24,350, keeping dips relatively shallow as long as the index holds above its 50-day moving average. A decisive break below these supports, however, could open the way towards 23,790 or even the 100-day average around 22,900.

With the Fed cautious but easing and inflation still sticky, any sustained move higher will remain sensitive to incoming economic data. For now, the index’s resilience above key moving averages confirms that the broader uptrend is intact, with the bias tilted towards the upside.

The writer is manager of dealing and investor education at Phillip Securities