Donald Trump’s biographer’s prediction about jail sentence

Donald Trump biographer David Cay Johnston believes the former president will be sentenced to “at least 30 days behind bars” following the guilty verdict in his Manhattan criminal hush money trial.

In a case brought forward by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a New York jury on Thursday found Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records relating to a hush money payment made to adult film star Stormy Daniels by Trump’s then-lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen shortly before the 2016 presidential election. Daniels alleges she had a sexual encounter with Trump in 2006, which he denies. Trump has maintained his innocence, claiming the case is politically motivated, and his lawyers plan to fight the verdict and appeal the case if necessary.

“This was a disgrace. This was a rigged trial by a conflicted judge who was corrupt,” the former president said outside the courtroom following the verdict.

Johnston, a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist and author of the 2016 bestselling biography The Making of Donald Trump, said on MSNBC on Saturday that Trump “invited” Judge Juan Merchan, who presided over the case, to issue a jail sentence due to his behavior—both during the trial and after the verdict.

When MSNBC’s Yasmin Vossoughian asked Johnston, “Do you think Donald Trump could see jail time?” Johnston replied, “Absolutely.”

“If you are contrite you acknowledge that you did wrong, you typically get a lighter sentence. In Donald’s case, he has 10 criminal contempts,” he added. “After the jury came in, he continued attacking the judge and attacking the system. I think he is inviting Judge Merchan to give him a sentence behind bars. Frankly, I will be surprised if he does not get at least 30 days behind bars.”

Each of the 34 counts is a class E felony, which under New York state law is punishable by a fine and up to five years in prison. Merchan is scheduled to issue Trump’s sentencing on July 11, four days before the Republican National Convention begins its process of officially nominating its 2024 choice.

In March, Merchan imposed a gag order on Trump, barring him from making public statements about witnesses, including Cohen and Daniels, as well as lawyers and staff in the case and their families. The order excluded Merchan and Bragg. However, it was later expanded to include Merchan’s and Bragg’s families after Trump made blistering attacks toward the judge’s daughter, Loren Merchan, and her connection to the Democratic Party.

Trump was fined $10,000 in total for 10 separate violations of the gag order and Merchan threatened jail time if the former president continued violating the order.

Newsweek emailed Trump’s lead attorney, Todd Blanche, for comment Saturday night. This story will be updated with any provided statements.

Booking a former president into jail would come with several logistical questions that have never had to be answered before, namely how the U.S. Secret Service would still provide round-the-clock protection as is required by law.

Syracuse University law professor Gregory Germain told Newsweek on Friday that imprisoning the leading presidential candidate of a major political party would “create a constitutional crisis, and I would expect emergency motions to stay the sentence pending appeal.”

“I think a prison sentence is unlikely for a first-time nonviolent Class E felony,” he added. “Any other defendant would be given probation, and I think it will be very hard for the judge to justify a prison sentence over a records violation.”

Johnston said on Saturday that he recognized that a host of legal experts aren’t predicting jail time for the former president.

“While that is true that wealthy white men with no past record in their 70s, typically on a first offense for white-collar crime, don’t go to jail, sentencing also depends on the behavior of the accused,” he told Vossoughian.

Judge Michael J. Obus, a justice for the criminal section of the New York County Supreme Court, previously told Newsweek that the 10 times that Trump was found in criminal contempt of court will be considered by Merchan when sentencing him.

Obus, who has been an administrative judge overseeing Merchan’s court, said that one guaranteed way for Trump to end up in jail will be to break his gag order for an 11th time.

Addressing the relevant factors for sentencing, Obus told Newsweek that Trump “has been convicted of the lowest level, non-violent, class E felonies, and he has no prior criminal record at the age of 77.”

“On the other hand, a conviction of many counts of falsifying business records in the first degree, in service of presidential election fraud, is a very serious matter. Unprecedented, I guess, in our court, but certainly serious,” he said. “This defendant was also held in criminal contempt for ten incidents that took place during the trial, and he hasn’t [shown], and I do not expect he’ll be showing any remorse.”