Vietnam’s Trade Surpasses Forecasts Amid Rush to Beat Potential Trump Tariffs

Vietnam’s exports increased more than anticipated in July as buyers scrambled to avoid a 20% tariff on the nation’s exports to the US that would go into effect on Thursday, August 7.

According to a statement from the statistics office, exports increased 16% in July compared to the same month last year to $42.3 billion, exceeding forecasts of 14% growth. Over the period, imports increased 17.8% to $40 billion, exceeding the 15.2% forecast. Compared to the $2.83 billion released in June, the trade surplus was $2.27 billion.

This year, the export-heavy Southeast Asian country, which sells everything from clothing and coffee to engine parts, has been shipping more goods to customers who want to avoid the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.

Originally threatened with a 46% import levy, the country now only faces a 20% import levy, one percentage point higher than its neighbors, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand.

Tran Tuan Minh, chief executive officer of TVI, a Hanoi-based equity research and investment firm told Economic Times, “Vietnam posted impressive export figures in July, mostly because companies were rushing to ship goods to the US ahead of the Trump tariffs.”

“We expect exports to slow significantly later this year, mainly due to the 20% tariffs and especially the 40% rate on transshipments, which still remains quite unclear at this point,” the CEO added.

Trade negotiators are trying to “actively continue” discussions with Washington, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.

Additionally, it reaffirmed its intentions to increase domestic consumption of Vietnamese goods and diversify its markets, with a focus on trade agreements with the Middle East and India.

Separate customs data that was released on Wednesday, August 6, showed that exports to the US increased 26% to $14.2 billion in July compared to the same month last year. In July, Chinese imports reached roughly $16.7 billion, a 30.5% increase.

Roughly 5% of Vietnam’s GDP comes from net exports to the US, and factories that have flourished as businesses have diversified their supply chains from China are at risk from the tariffs.

Consumer prices rose 3.19% year over year, which was less than the 3.40% economist estimate and the 3.57% pace of June, but the data was generally positive. Industrial production increased by 0.5% from June and 8.5% year over year.

Exports of commodities increased as well; coffee exports increased to 103,000 tons, a 34.6% increase from the previous year.

According to data released last month, the economy has been booming in 2025, with the gross domestic product increasing 7.96% from April to June compared to the same period last year. It’s unclear if the new US tariffs will thwart the government’s 2025 growth target of 8%.