X ad sales expected to grow for first time since Musk deal

[SAN FRANCISCO] Elon Musk’s X is on pace for its first year of advertising revenue growth since the billionaire acquired the company in 2022, according to research firm Emarketer – in part because advertisers are reacting to Musk’s power in the Trump administration.

The social network, formerly Twitter, is projected to generate US$1.31 billion in US advertising sales in 2025, an increase of 17.5 per cent, according to Emarketer. Globally, X’s ad sales are estimated to be US$2.26 billion this year, up 16.5 per cent.

Advertisers, many of which left in protest of X’s loosened standards for harmful content, are returning now that Musk is a senior adviser to US President Donald Trump, according to Emarketer principal analyst Jasmine Enberg.

“Some of the spending growth is really being driven by fear as we have seen some of the big advertisers return in an effort to curry favour with the Trump administration,” she said on Wednesday (Mar 26). She added that it’s too soon to call it a “rebound”, because it’s not necessarily connected to improvements in the company’s products or services.

Even with the projected spending increase, X’s business remains much smaller than it was when Musk acquired the social network for US$44 billion in late 2022. The company reported advertising revenue of US$4.5 billion in 2021, its final full year as a publicly traded entity.

As a private company, X does not disclose financial information. A spokesperson for the company declined to comment.

X’s advertising business, which makes up the bulk of its total revenue, took a major hit after Musk acquired the company and pledged to bring more “free speech” to the service by eliminating some rules and content policies, and slashing the team responsible for policing the site. Many advertisers paused spending or left altogether for fear that their promoted messages might appear alongside unsavoury content.

Now other networks, including major competitors Facebook and Instagram from Meta Platforms, have followed Musk in eliminating certain speech rules. That set a new baseline for the industry. “It’s more of a realisation that even if it’s not acceptable, it’s unavoidable,” Enberg said.

Enberg also pointed out that some marketers may feel they need to buy ads on X to avoid a legal dispute with Musk, who has started to sue major advertisers who are not spending money on the service. “Some of them now see spending on X as a cost of doing business,” she added. Bloomberg previously reported that some advertisers are returning to X due to the looming threat of litigation.

The bump to X’s advertising business, coupled with Musk’s new role in the Trump administration, has helped the company in other ways this year. Banks that spent years holding onto debt from Musk’s X buyout were finally able to offload it without losing money, and the company has also raised more money this year from outside investors at a valuation close to Musk’s initial purchase price.

Still, Emarketer is not forecasting X’s advertising business to return to its pre-Musk form anytime soon. The firm’s global ad revenue estimate for 2027 is just US$2.6 billion, or 42 per cent smaller than the company’s business was in 2021. BLOOMBERG